紐時賞析／窮國製造的暖化少 卻深受其害

Unequal Toll From Climate Change’s Effects

窮國製造的暖化少 卻深受其害

India has contributed little to climate change: Home to 18% of the world’s population, it has emitted just 3% of planet-warming greenhouse gases.

印度在促成氣候變遷方面幾乎沒做什麼：人口占全球18%，卻只排放3%使地球變暖的溫室氣體。

But India is suffering from climate change. Over the past three months, a heat wave has devastated north India and neighboring Pakistan. Temperatures surpassed 43.33 degrees Celsius.

但印度苦於氣候變遷。過去三個月，熱浪重創北印度和鄰國巴基斯坦。氣溫曾超過攝氏43.33度。

It is so hot that overheated birds fell out of the sky in Gurgaon, India, and a historic bridge in northern Pakistan collapsed after melting snow and ice at a glacial lake released a torrent of water.

天氣熱到讓印度古爾岡市的鳥類受不了暑氣從天空掉下，北巴基斯坦一座具歷史意義的橋梁因為冰河湖雪冰融化釋出洪水而倒塌。

Scientists say global warming almost certainly played a role in the heat wave.

科學家說，幾乎可以確定全球暖化在這波熱浪中起作用。

And rising temperatures stand to make unusually hotter weather more common not just in India and Pakistan but around the world, including in the U.S.

因氣溫逐步升高而將更常出現罕見熱天氣的不只是印度和巴基斯坦，還有全球各地，包括美國。

Indians have responded by staying indoors as much as possible, particularly during the afternoon hours. The government has encouraged this, pushing schools to close early and businesses to shift work schedules.

印度人回應的方式是盡可能待在室內，尤其在下午。政府鼓勵這樣做，逼學校早點關門，要企業改變工作時間表。

The measures have kept down deaths — with fewer than 100 recorded so far, an improvement from heat waves years ago that killed thousands.

這些措施壓低了死亡數，迄今記錄在案的死者不到百人，比多年前熱浪造成數千人喪命有進步。

But these measures have costs. School time is cut short, so students learn less. People do not travel to their jobs, so work is less productive. The heat kept some farmers inside and stunted harvests, so crop yields fell and global food prices increased. Social life is disrupted.

但這些措施有其代價。在校時間縮短，所以學生學得少。人們不必通勤去工作，因此生產力下降。炎熱讓一些農民待在室內，妨礙收成，因而農作物產量減少，全球食物價格上漲。社交生活受阻。

The situation could be likened to the mixed effects of COVID lockdowns: Measures for adapting to climate change can help prevent the worst health outcomes, but they come with real costs.

這種情形或許類似防疫封鎖措施的混合效應：適應氣候變遷措施也能避免最糟糕的公共衛生後果，但隨之而來的是真正的代價。

“We’re saving lives, but then livelihoods are lost,” said Roxy Koll, a climate scientist in India.

印度氣候科學家柯爾說：「我們挽救生命，但然後就沒了生計。」

The geography of poor countries — many are close to the equator — is not the only reason climate change is such a burden for them. Poverty is another factor, leaving them with fewer resources to adapt.

許多窮國靠近赤道，但位置並不是氣候變遷對這些國家造成負擔的唯一原因。貧困是另一個因素，讓這些國家可供調適的資源更少。

There is a paradox to the climate crisis. Because India never fully industrialized, it has not released as many greenhouse gases as the U.S., European nations and other rich countries. But because it has not industrialized, it also has fewer resources to adapt than the richer, polluting nations.

氣候危機有個自相矛盾的情況。由於印度從未完全工業化，排放的溫室氣體不像美國、歐洲國家等富國那麼多。不過也因為印度還沒工業化，可供調適的資源也比排放汙染的富國少。

There is a cycle here: To adapt, countries have to adopt modern technologies. But since these technologies often require planet-warming oil and coal, their use aggravates climate change and, consequently, extreme weather.

這裡有個循環：為了調適，各國必須採用現代技術。不過由於這些技術通常需要用到會使地球暖化的石油和煤，採用這些技術會加重氣候變遷，讓極端天氣更常出現。

文／German Lopez 譯／李京倫

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【李京倫】

本文以印度為例，討論全球暖化的不公平受災現象：窮國排放的溫室氣體相對少，但因缺乏調適氣候變遷的資源，受暖化之害反更深。

Adapt是談論氣候變遷的關鍵字。全球因應氣候變遷的方法主要有二，一是mitigation（減緩），亦即減少溫室氣體排放，另一個就是adaptation（調適），針對氣候變遷目前或預期效應調整適應。對開發中國家而言，調適尤其重要，因為這類國家最容易受氣候變遷衝擊（most vulnerable），而且在氣候變遷效應中首當其衝（bear the brunt ）。

調適行動實行上有很多種，例：重新造林（reforestation）、修建海堤（seawall）防止因海平面上升惡化的暴潮、綠化屋頂（green roof）緩和都市熱島效應（urban heat island effect）、選擇性培育（selective breeding）抗旱作物等。