紐時賞析／對現狀不滿 拉美向左轉

Leftists Replacing Right-Wing Leaders Across Latin America

對現狀不滿 拉美向左轉

In the final weeks of 2021, Chile and Honduras voted decisively for

leftist presidents to replace leaders on the right, extending a

significant, multiyear shift across Latin America.

2021年最後幾周，智利與宏都拉斯以決定性票數選出左派總統取代右派領袖，延續了多年來拉丁美洲各地的一個重大轉變。

This year, leftist politicians are the favorites to win presidential

elections in Colombia and Brazil, taking over from right-wing

incumbents, which would put the left and center-left in power in the

six largest economies in the region, stretching from Tijuana to

Tierra del Fuego.

今年，哥倫比亞和巴西的左派政治人物最可能贏得總統大選，取代右翼現任者，這將使左派和中間偏左勢力在這個區域六個最大經濟體掌權，這區域從墨西哥提華納市一直延伸到南美洲最南端火地群島。

Economic suffering, widening inequality, fervent anti-incumbent

sentiment and mismanagement of COVID-19 have all fueled a pendulum

swing away from the center-right and right-wing leaders who were

dominant a few years ago.

經濟欠佳、不平等擴大、反對現任者情緒高漲和政府對疫情處理失當，全都促使鐘擺從幾年前主導政壇的中間偏右和右翼領袖盪開。

The left has promised more equitable distribution of wealth, better

public services and vastly expanded social safety nets. But the

region’s new leaders face serious economic constraints and legislative

opposition that could restrict their ambitions — and restive voters

who have been willing to punish whoever fails to deliver.

左派曾承諾更公平分配財富、改善公共服務和大幅擴展社會安全網。不過，這個區域的新領袖面臨嚴重的經濟限制和國會反對派，可能妨礙他們施展抱負，還有焦躁不安的選民，隨時準備懲罰沒能兌現承諾的人。

The left’s gains could buoy China and undermine the United States as

they compete for regional influence, analysts say, with a new crop of

Latin American leaders who are desperate for economic development and

more open to Beijing’s global strategy of offering loans and

infrastructure investment. The change could also make it harder for

the United States to continue isolating authoritarian leftist regimes

in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.

分析家說，中國大陸和美國爭奪區域影響力之際，左派得勢可能有利大陸而損害美國利益，因新一批拉美領袖非常需要經濟發展，且更願意接受北京向全球提供貸款和基礎設施資金的策略。這種轉變也可能讓美國更難繼續孤立委內瑞拉、尼加拉瓜和古巴的左派專制政權。

With rising inflation and stagnant economies, Latin America’s new

leaders will find it hard to deliver real change on profound problems,

said Pedro Mendes Loureiro, a professor of Latin American studies at

the University of Cambridge. To some extent, he said, voters are

“electing the left simply because it is the opposition at the moment.”

英國劍橋大學拉美研究教授洛雷羅說，由於通膨不斷上升和經濟停滯，拉美新領袖很難在深層問題上實現真正變革。他說，在某種程度上，選民「選出左派，只因為那是當前的反對派」。

Unlike the early 2000s, when leftists won critical presidencies in

Latin America, the new officeholders are saddled by debt, lean budgets,

scant access to credit and, in many cases, vociferous opposition.

不像2000年代初期贏得拉美重要國家總統職位的左派，新一批領袖面臨負債累累、預算不寬裕、很難拿到信貸，而且在很多情況下，還面對吵吵嚷嚷的反對派。

Eric Hershberg, director of the Center for Latin American and Latino

Studies at American University, said the left’s winning streak is born

out of widespread indignation.

美利堅大學拉美與拉丁裔研究中心主任赫許柏格說，左派勝利源自人民的憤慨。

“This is really about lower-middle-class and working-class sectors

saying, ‘Thirty years into democracy, and we still have to ride a

decrepit bus for two hours to get to a bad health clinic,’”Hershberg

said. 

赫許柏格說：「就如中下階級和勞動階級地區所說，『民主30年，我們還得搭破舊公車兩小時才能到一家爛診所』。」

文／Ernesto Londoño, Julie Turkewitz and Flávia Milhorance 譯／李京倫

說文解字看新聞

【李京倫】

拉美很可能在今年出現六大經濟體全由左派執政的局面，而左派崛起是因為選民對現狀不滿，不過專家認為，左派上台並不能解決拉美的深層問題。

左派又稱左翼（the left wing），認為社會不公現象不合理，必須減少或消除。右派又稱右翼（the right wing），認為社會不平等是市場經濟下的必然結果，傾向於維護現有社會秩序及階層。

鐘擺效應（pendulum effect）主張政治、文化等領域的趨勢傾向在相反極端間來回擺盪。拉美政治以鐘擺效應著稱，左右派輪流得勢。

crop是作物、收成，a crop of是指同時湧現的一批人或事物。streak是條紋或條痕，a winning/losing streak是連贏╱連輸。

低中產階級（lower middle class）是中產階級的分支，相對中上階級

（upper middle class），受教育程度較低，收入較少，如經理人、老師、秘書等。中上階級往往教育程度和收入較高，如醫師、律師、證券經紀人等。