紐時賞析／脫歐付出的代價太大如同災難… 逾5成英國人後悔了

The Weird Silence About Brexit’s Disastrousness

關於英國脫歐災難 人民異常沉默

There’s a growing understanding in Britain that the country’s vote to quit the European Union, a decisive moment in the international rise of reactionary populism, was a grave error.

愈來愈多英國人意識到，英國投票退出歐盟這項保守民粹主義在國際間崛起的決定性時刻，是個重大錯誤。

Just as critics predicted, Brexit has led to inflation, labor shortages, business closures and travel snafus. It has created supply chain problems that put the future of British car manufacturing in danger. Brexit has, in many cases, turned travel between Europe and the U.K. into a punishing ordeal, as I learned recently, spending hours in a chaotic passport control line when taking the train from Paris to London. British musicians are finding it hard to tour in Europe because of the costs and red tape associated with moving both people and equipment across borders, which Elton John called “crucifying.”

如同反對人士預估，英國脫歐引發通貨膨脹、勞力短缺、企業倒閉及旅遊亂象。此舉造成供應鏈問題，危及英國汽車製造業的未來。在許多案例中，英國脫歐使得往返歐陸與英國變成一種痛苦折磨，正如我最近經歷的，搭火車從巴黎前往倫敦時在混亂的護照檢查隊伍耗上幾小時。由於人員與設備的跨境移動成本及繁文縟節，英國音樂家在歐洲巡演變得困難，艾爾頓強稱其為「酷刑」。

According to the U.K.’s Office for Budget and Responsibility, leaving the EU has shaved 4% off Britain’s gross domestic product. The damage to Britain’s economy, the OBR’s chair has said, is of the same “magnitude” as that from the COVID pandemic.

根據英國預算責任辦公室，脫歐導致英國國內生產毛額削減4%。該機構主席指出，這對於英國經濟造成的損害和新冠疫情同樣「重大」。

All this pain and hassle has created an anti-Brexit majority in Britain. According to a YouGov poll released this week, 57% of Britons say the country was wrong to vote to leave the EU, and a slight majority wants to rejoin it. Even Nigel Farage, the former leader of the far-right U.K. Independence Party sometimes known as “Mr. Brexit,” told the BBC in May, “Brexit has failed.”

這些痛苦與麻煩造成大半英國人反對脫歐。根據「輿觀」本周發布的民調，57%英國人稱英國投票脫歐是錯誤，且略多於半數的人希望重返歐盟。甚至有時被稱作「脫歐先生」的極右派英國獨立黨前領導人法拉吉5月也向英國廣播公司表示，「英國脫歐失敗了」。

This mess was, of course, both predictable and predicted. Seven years ago, Brexit was an early augur of the revolt against cosmopolitanism that swept Donald Trump into power.

當然，這些混亂是可預見的，而且在預料之中。7年前，英國脫歐是反抗世界主義的早期預兆，讓川普乘勢掌權。

Both enterprises — Britain’s divorce from the EU and Trump’s reign in the U.S. — turned out catastrophically. Both left their countries fatigued and depleted. But while America can’t stop talking about Trump, many in the U.K. can scarcely stand to think about Brexit.

英國脫歐與川普統治美國這兩件創舉，都走向災難性結局。兩者都讓各自國家精疲力盡。然而，相較於美國無法停止談論川普，許多英國人連思考英國脫歐都幾乎無法忍受。

The London mayor, Sadiq Khan, one of the few Labour Party leaders eager to discuss the consequences of leaving the EU, described an “omertà,” or vow of silence, around it. “It’s the elephant in the room,” he told me. “I’m frustrated that no one’s talking about it.”

倫敦市長卡恩是少數渴望探討脫歐後果的工黨領袖，他形容該話題被「緘默法則」籠罩。他告訴我：「那是顯而易見大家卻不願多談的話題，沒人談論這件事令我沮喪」。

“I don’t think you’re going to see other countries in the EU leaving the EU if for no other reason than because they’ve seen the impact on us,” Khan said. But there’s a larger lesson, one most Western countries seemingly have to continually relearn. Right-wing nationalist projects begin with loud, flamboyant swagger. They tend to end unspeakably.

卡恩說：「我不認為你會看到其他歐盟國家脫歐，只因他們看見脫歐對我們的影響。」但還有一個有更大的教訓，一個多數西方國家似乎總學不會的教訓。右翼民族主義的計畫始於喧鬧、浮誇的招搖，但往往不堪啟齒地告終。

文／Michelle Goldberg　譯／陳曉慈