紐時賞析／科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫

Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat

科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫

Global warming is making dangerously hot weather more common, and more extreme, on every continent. A new study by researchers in Britain takes a unique approach to identifying which places are most at risk.

全球暖化使危險的炎熱天氣在各大陸更普遍且更極端。英國一項新研究採取一個獨特方法，確認哪些地方風險最高。

When the mercury spikes, communities can suffer for many reasons: because nobody checks in on older people living alone, because poorer people don’t have air conditioning, because workers don’t have much choice but to toil outdoors. The new study focuses on one simple reason societies might be especially vulnerable to an extreme heat wave: because they haven’t been through one before.

氣溫升高時，社群可能由於許多理由受苦：因為沒有人察看獨居老人的狀況，因為較窮苦的民眾沒有空調，因為工人別無選擇只能在室外辛苦工作。這項新研究關注一些社群可能特別容易受極端熱浪影響的一個簡單理由：因為他們以前沒有經歷過。

Whether it’s heat or floods or epidemics of disease, societies are generally equipped to handle only the gravest disaster they have experienced in recent memory. Right after a catastrophe, people and policymakers are hyper-aware of the risks and how to respond, said Dann Mitchell, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol in England and an author of the study. “And then, as the years go on, you sort of forget and you’re not so bothered,” he said.

無論是高溫、洪水還是疾病流行，社會通常只能應對他們近來經歷過最嚴重的災難。英國布里斯托大學氣候科學家、該研究的一名作者米契爾表示，一場大災難過後，民眾和政策制定者非常明白相關風險和如何應對災害，「然後，隨著歲月流逝，你就會有點忘記，你也不會那麼在意了」。

Mitchell and his colleagues looked at maximum daily temperatures around the world between 1959 and 2021. They found that regions covering 31% of Earth’s land surface experienced heat so extraordinary that, statistically, it shouldn’t have happened. These places, the study argues, are now prepared to some degree for future severe hot spells.

米契爾和他的同事檢視1959至2021年全球每日最高溫。他們發現，地球陸地表面31%地區經歷過非比尋常的高溫，從統計學而言，這根本不該發生。該研究認為，這些地區如今某種程度上已為未來的酷熱做好準備。

But there are still many areas that, simply by chance, haven’t yet experienced such extreme heat. So they might not be as prepared.

然而，仍有許多地區剛好尚未經歷過這種極端高溫，因此他們可能沒做好準備。

According to the study, these include economically developed places like Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, plus the region of China around Beijing. But they also include developing countries like Afghanistan, Guatemala, Honduras and Papua New Guinea, that are more likely to lack resources to keep people safe.

研究指出，這些地區包括德國、荷蘭、比利時和盧森堡等經濟發達地區，以及中國大陸北京周圍地區，也包括阿富汗、瓜地馬拉、宏都拉斯和巴布亞紐幾內亞等開發中國家，他們更可能缺乏保障人民安全的資源。

Other areas at particular risk include far eastern Russia, northwestern Argentina and part of northeastern Australia.

其他特別具有風險的地方包括俄羅斯遠東地區、阿根廷西北部和澳洲東北部部分地區。

The study was published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.

這項研究周二發表在「自然通訊」期刊。

文／Raymond Zhong　譯／羅方妤