紐時賞析／VW再生計畫：復甦或只是延緩死亡？

Will a Plan To Revive Volkswagen Be Enough?

VW再生計畫：復甦或只是延緩死亡？

Volkswagen has won support from its unions to carry out the most sweeping overhaul in the German automaker’s 89-year history. But the biggest tests for the company and its CEO, Oliver Blume, lie ahead.

福斯汽車已取得工會支持，準備推動這家德國車廠89年來最大規模的重整。不過，對福斯及執行長奧博穆而言，真正艱鉅的考驗還在後頭。

After surprising investors this past week with an agreement to cut about 50,000 additional jobs, Blume needs to put his plan into action, reducing costs that he estimates are 30% higher than those of rivals and slashing production capacity by more than 500,000 vehicles a year.

福斯本周與工會達成協議，將再裁減約5萬個工作，出乎投資人意料。接下來，奧博穆必須把重整計畫付諸實行，包括降低他估計比競爭對手高出30%的成本，並把年產能削減逾50萬輛。

The labor deal “gives Volkswagen some breathing space, but essentially the problem is merely being postponed,” said Matthias Schmidt, an auto industry analyst in Germany.

德國汽車業分析師施密特說，這項勞資協議「讓福斯暫時有了喘息空間，但基本上只是把問題延後」。

Volkswagen must confront an array of challenges, from intensifying Chinese competition to U.S. tariffs, that have eroded its profit margins and threatened its survival. The deal has spurred hope that the iconic German company, and the country’s ailing industrial sector more broadly, can overcome those obstacles.

福斯須面對一系列挑戰，從中國競爭加劇到美國關稅，這些都已侵蝕利潤率並威脅生存。這項協議激發了希望：這家德國標誌性企業，乃至德國整體陷入困境的工業部門，能克服這些障礙。

Volkswagen’s shares gained nearly 6% on Friday, the biggest daily gain in nearly nine months. Even so, the company has lost about a quarter of its value this year.

福斯股價9月4日上漲近 6%，創下近9個月來最大單日漲幅。即便如此公司今年已損失約四分之一的市值。

The plan would bring total job cuts to about 100,000 by 2030, or 15% of the company’s global workforce. It would also cut in half the number of Volkswagen models and reduce production to 9 million cars a year, compared with a target of 12 million before the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the details, including the fate of four German factories, remain unsettled.

該計畫將使2030年前的總裁員數達到約10萬人，占公司全球員工的15%。福斯車款數量也將減半，年產量降至900萬輛，而新冠疫情前的目標是1200萬輛。許多細節仍未確定，包括德國4家工廠何去何從。

The company has said those plants in Emden, Hanover, Zwickau and Neckarsulm don’t have a clear future beyond 2030. Still, there could be ways to avoid shutting factories, potentially by converting them for use by the defense industry as Germany ramps up spending to deter Russia’s military threat. Blume has said talks with defense companies are underway.

福斯表示，位於埃姆登、漢諾威、茲維考與內卡蘇爾姆的4座工廠，2030年後的前景仍不明朗。不過，公司或許還有辦法避免關廠，例如在德國為嚇阻俄羅斯軍事威脅而大幅增加國防支出的同時，把部分工廠轉供國防產業使用。奧博穆表示，目前已與軍工企業展開洽談。

Such steps are unlikely to offset Volkswagen’s declines.

不過，這些做法恐不足以彌補福斯目前的衰退幅度。

“People forget how big the car industry is,” said Harald Hendrikse, a managing director at Citi Research. “The chance of saving all of these jobs and all of this capacity with the defense industry is zero.”

花旗研究董事總經理韓德里克斯說：「人們常常忘了汽車產業的規模有多龐大。想靠國防產業保住所有這些工作與產能，機會是零。」

Other options include selling its cars developed in China to the European market, or sharing capacity in Europe with Chinese partners.

其他可能做法還包括，把福斯在中國開發的汽車引進歐洲市場銷售，或與中國合作夥伴共享歐洲的生產設施與產能。

文／James Paton，譯／國際中心