紐時賞析／北極威脅日增 加拿大恐需靠攏美國

As Arctic Threats Rise, Canada May Need to Lean on the U.S.

北極威脅日增 加拿大恐需靠攏美國

The Canadian and American flags could be seen billowing at a distance in the all-white Arctic landscape — the Maple Leaf visibly lower than the Stars and Stripes.

在一片純白的北極景觀中，遠遠就能看見加拿大與美國國旗隨風飄揚—楓葉旗明顯低於星條旗。

The asymmetry had a simple explanation. Flags across Canada, including this one in the hamlet of Cambridge Bay in the Canadian High Arctic, were flying at half-staff to mourn the recent mass killing at a school in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia.

這種不對稱的原因其實很簡單。包括位於北極高地劍橋灣的這面國旗，加拿大各地都降半旗致哀，悼念卑詩省滕伯勒里奇一所學校日前發生的大規模殺戮事件。

But its symbolism, however unintended, was a reminder of Canada’s increasingly uncomfortable situation in its Arctic region: Unable to defend it by itself, Canada remains dependent on the United States, whose president has repeatedly threatened to annex it and who has also set his eyes on Canada’s Arctic neighbor, Greenland.

然而，這樣的畫面即使並非刻意安排，仍象徵加拿大在北極地區日益尷尬的處境：加拿大無法單獨防衛該區域，仍仰賴美國；但現任美國總統不僅多次威脅要將加拿大納入版圖，還將目光投向其北極鄰居格陵蘭。

It wasn’t always like that.

情況並非一直如此。

Between the two flags, a large green signboard indicated that it was the site of a North Warning System radar station belonging to the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, the North American air defense system led jointly by the United States and Canada. A large white dome housing a radar could be seen at a distance behind the flags — the same kind of white domes that dot some of the remotest corners of Canada’s Arctic as part of the defense system.

在兩面國旗間，一塊綠色告示牌顯示此地為北方預警系統雷達站，隸屬於北美防空司令部，也就是由美國與加拿大共同主導的北美空防體系。國旗後方遠處可見一座白色雷達圓頂—這類圓頂遍布加拿大北極最偏遠地區，是整體防禦系統一部分。

NORAD is a binational military organization, but the United States has always been the bigger partner. It built and financed much of the defense system, contributing the bulk of NORAD’s budget. While NORAD’s commander is a U.S. general, a Canadian serves as the deputy commander.

NORAD雖是雙邊軍事組織，但美國始終是主導的一方。多數防禦設施由美國建造出資，並負擔大部分預算。該組織由美國將領擔任司令，副司令由加拿大派任。

Today, experts believe that the North Warning System would be incapable of detecting new Russian hypersonic missiles that fly at low altitudes. Canada is building a so-called Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar system that can spot threats at far greater distances, as part of NORAD’s modernization.

如今專家認為，北方預警系統已無法偵測低空飛行的新型俄羅斯極音速飛彈。加拿大正建置所謂「北極超視距雷達系統」，可在更遠距離偵測威脅，作為NORAD現代化的一環。

Russia continues to build up its military capacity in the Arctic, and China is pushing into the region as a self-described “near-Arctic” nation. Canada may have no choice but to get even closer to the United States, even as Prime Minister Mark Carney puts forward economic and military policies to make Canada less dependent on its southern neighbor.

俄羅斯持續強化在北極的軍事部署，中國也以「近北極國家」自居，積極進入該區域。在此情勢下，即使總理卡尼提出希望降低依賴美國的經濟與軍事政策，恐怕加拿大仍不得向美國靠攏。

President Donald Trump has pressed Canada to join a “Golden Dome” defense shield to shoot down advanced intercontinental missiles coming over the Arctic — making it completely clear who would be the junior partner. Joining would cost Canada $61 billion, he said, or nothing if Canada became the 51st state.

美國總統川普施壓加拿大加入「金穹」系統，以攔截經由北極來襲的先進洲際飛彈—這也清楚顯示雙方誰是次要夥伴。川普表示，加入該系統將花加拿大610億美元；若成為美國第51州，則免費。

文／大西哲光，譯／國際中心

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【張佑生】

川普三不五時揚言要將加拿大和格陵蘭納入美國。報導開頭寫景，用兩國國旗的位置高低，帶出令人不快的事實：所有夥伴同盟關係中，必然有junior partner（次要夥伴），江湖話是「小弟」，senior partner自然是美國。金融時報社論以When dependence on America becomes a vulnerability為標題指出Allies have learnt that partnership with Trump's US can endanger them.堪稱鞭辟入裡。

報導用billowing形容旗幟迎風飄揚，這個字也有波濤洶湧的意思，例如the billowing ocean，視覺效果是「一大片」：Smoke was billowing from the dome.

報導用annex描述川普的意圖，這是不徵求對方同意甚至動用武力的兼併：The Baltic republics were annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940.對於三國都是不堪回首噩夢。

專業名詞over-the-horizon radar雷達，簡寫OTH，中文稱超視距或視距外，能克服地球曲率，偵測(detect)到地平線（視距）外的目標。跟部署在南韓的薩德(THAAD)反飛彈系統一樣，OTH雷達基地樹大招風，在戰時極有可能成為敵軍首先摧毀的目標，屬於鄰避(NIMBY)設施。