紐時賞析／美國大選投票倒數 AI改造政治舞台仍為理論

A.I.'s Effect on Election Is Still Mostly Theoretical

AI預告顛覆2024大選 仍屬理論

Artificial intelligence helped make turnout predictions in the Mississippi elections last year, when one group used the technology to transcribe, summarize and synthesize audio recordings of its door knockers’ interactions with voters into reports on what they were hearing in each county.

人工智慧（AI）在去年密西西比州選舉中，協助做出投票率預測。當時，一個團隊使用該技術，轉錄、總結與合成敲門拜票志工與選民互動的錄音，成為他們正在每個郡聽聞情況的報告。

Another group recently compared messages translated by humans and AI into six Asian languages and found them all to be similarly effective. A Democratic firm tested four versions of a voice-over ad — two spoken by humans, two by AI — and found that the male AI voice was as persuasive as its human equivalent (the female voice outperformed her AI equivalent).

另一個團隊最近比較人類和AI翻譯成6種亞洲語言的訊息，發現結果都是同樣有效。一家民主黨公司測試4個版本的旁白廣告，2個由人類陳述、兩個由AI，發現男性AI聲音跟人類相同聲音一樣有說服力（女性聲音則勝過AI相同聲音）。

The era of artificial intelligence has officially arrived on the campaign trail. But the much-anticipated, and feared, technology remains confined to the margins of American campaigns.

在競選活動上，人工智慧時代已正式到來。但是，這項大受期待且引發恐懼的技術，仍然局限於美國選戰的邊緣。

With less than five months until the 2024 election, the political uses of AI are more theoretical than transformational, both as a constructive communications tool or as a way to spread dangerous disinformation. The Biden campaign said it has strictly limited its use of generative AI — which uses prompts to create text, audio or images — to productivity and data-analysis tools, while the Trump campaign said it does not use the technology at all.

距離2024年大選投票還有不到5個月，AI的政治運用是理論多於變革，不論是作為一種建設性溝通工具或是一種傳播危險假訊息的途徑。拜登競選團隊表示，已嚴格限制使用提示以創造文本、聲音或圖像的生成式AI用於生產力跟數據分析工具，而川普競選團隊表示，完全不使用該技術。

“This is the dog that didn’t bark,” said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a political adviser to one of the Democratic Party’s most generous donors, Reid Hoffman. “We haven’t found a cool thing that uses generative AI to invest in to actually win elections this year.”

霍夫曼是民主黨最慷慨的捐款者之一，他的政治顧問梅爾霍恩表示，「這是不叫的狗」。他說，「我們還沒有找到一個酷玩意，可利用生成式AI投資，以真正贏得今年的選舉」。

Technologists and political operatives have little doubt of AI’s power to transform the political stage — eventually. A new report from Higher Ground Labs, which invests in political technology companies to benefit progressive causes and candidates, found that while the technology remains in “the experimental stage,” it also represents “a generational opportunity” for the Democratic Party to get ahead.

技術專家和政治工作者，毫不懷疑AI最終將改造政治舞台。投資政治技術公司以俾益進步派理念及候選人的高地實驗室一份新報告發現，雖然技術仍在「實驗性階段」，也代表民主黨獲得成功的「世代機遇」。

Both Democrats and Republicans are also racing to shield themselves against the threat of a new category of political dark arts, featuring AI-fueled disinformation in the form of deepfakes and other false or misleading content. Before the New Hampshire primary in January, an AI-generated robocall that mimicked President Joe Biden’s voice in an attempt to suppress votes led to a new federal rule banning such calls.

民主黨人和共和黨人都在競相保護自己，不受新類型的政治巫術威脅，其特點為AI助長的假訊息，以深偽跟其他不實或誤導內容的形式出現。在一月新罕布夏州初選之前，AI生成的自動語音電話模仿拜登總統聲音，試圖壓制投票，促成一項新的聯邦法規禁止這類電話。

文／Shane Goldmacher, Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers　譯／周辰陽

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【張佑生】

以「AI串聯、共創未來」為活動主軸的台北國際電腦展甫落幕，紅透半邊天的人工智慧（artificial intelligence）自是不能在選舉缺席。 Campaign trail指（在不同地方展開的）一系列競選活動，可數名詞但常以單數形態出現：Is the president spending too much time on the campaign trail?大概是每位尋求連任的總統都要面對的質疑。

競選活動正式進入AI時代，目前仍局限為配角（remains confined to the margins)，介係詞常用to：We must confine ourselves to the agenda we've agreed on for this meeting.要與會者勿對商定議題以外的事項發言。

真正厲害的是生成式AI（generative AI)，被吹捧到彷彿無所不能，現實是其應用在競選活動仍處於實驗階段（in the experimental stage)。英語俚語有someone's bark is worse than his or her bite，意思類似「雷聲大雨點小」。