紐時賞析／印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎？

Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine?

印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎？

In July, when a critical deal was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to free up millions of pounds of desperately needed Ukrainian grain, India played an important behind-the-scenes role in helping sell the plan to Russia, which had been blockading the grain ships.

今年七月，當聯合國與土耳其斡旋達成一項關鍵協議，釋放數百萬磅急需的烏克蘭穀物時，印度在幕後扮演了重要角色，協助向俄羅斯推銷該計畫。俄羅斯一直在封鎖這些穀物船。

Two months later, when Russian forces were shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, leaving the world anxious about a nuclear catastrophe, India stepped in again and asked Russia to back off.

兩個月之後，當俄軍砲轟烏克蘭札波羅熱核電廠，令世界對核災感到焦慮時，印度再次介入，要求俄羅斯後退。

Throughout the Ukraine war, India has quietly assisted during a few pivotal moments such as these. Last week, India’s foreign minister traveled to Moscow for meetings with Russian officials on economic and political issues. Diplomats and foreign-policy experts are watching closely to see if India can use its unique leverage as one of the world’s largest countries that is a friend to both East and West to press Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

整個烏克蘭戰爭期間，印度在諸如此類的幾個關鍵時刻默默提供協助。印度外長上周前往莫斯科，與俄羅斯官員就經濟和政治問題舉行會談。外交官與外交政策專家正密切關注，印度能否利用身為世界最大國家之一並跟東西方友好的獨特影響力，迫使俄羅斯結束在烏克蘭的戰爭。

Russia and Ukraine are far from negotiating with each other; Ukraine feels it has momentum on the battlefield and is in no mood to talk, and Russia is hardly relenting either. But the widespread belief is that if the fighting reaches a stalemate, and the energy crisis makes life really miserable in Ukraine and across Europe this winter, the prospect of a negotiated settlement or at least a cease-fire may arise.

俄羅斯和烏克蘭完全不談判；烏克蘭覺得自己在戰場上擁有氣勢，無心談判，俄羅斯也幾乎沒有鬆懈下來。但人們普遍認為，若戰鬥陷入僵局，能源危機讓烏克蘭跟整個歐洲今冬生活變得非常悲慘，以談判來解決或是至少停火的機會可能出現。

India’s leader, Narendra Modi, seems to enjoy a good rapport with Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, with whom he shares certain strongman characteristics.

印度領導人莫迪似乎與俄羅斯領導人普亭關係融洽，兩人都擁有某些強人特徵。

But the Ukraine crisis and the escalating tensions between Russia and the West are testing India’s tightrope act. It continues to buy Russian oil, lots of it, which angers Ukraine and the United States. And it has refused to support resolutions at the United Nations that have condemned Russia’s aggression.

但烏克蘭危機以及俄國與西方不斷升級的緊張關係，正考驗印度的走鋼索行為。該國繼續大量購買俄羅斯石油，激怒了烏克蘭跟美國。它還拒絕支持聯合國譴責俄羅斯侵略的決議。

Yuri Makarov, chief editor of the Ukrainian national broadcasting company and a popular commentator based in Kyiv, was surprised to hear that Indian officials had been contemplating peace efforts.

當得知印度官員一直在考慮和平行動時，烏克蘭國家廣播公司主編、基輔頗受歡迎的評論員馬卡洛夫感到驚訝。

“I wonder if they have their own idea of the real Ukrainian situation,” he said, adding that he had yet to meet any Indian diplomats, intellectuals or journalists in Kyiv.

他說，「我好奇他們是否對烏克蘭真實情況有自己的看法」，並稱自己還沒在基輔見到任何印度外交官、知識分子或記者。

His instinct, he said, was that Israel or Turkey would be better-informed mediators.

他表示，他的直覺是以色列或土耳其會成為消息較為靈通的調解人。

Still, Makarov said, “Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to exist.”

不過，馬卡洛夫說：「俄羅斯不希望烏克蘭存在。」

He added, “So I don’t see an option for talks, sadly.”

他接著說：「所以很遺憾，我看不到有談判的選項。」

文／Jeffrey Gettleman、Mujib Mashal　譯／陳韋廷

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【張佑生】

俄國入侵烏克蘭從春天打到冬天，現在雙方似乎都想找下台階，華府的態度尤其是關鍵。本文假設性討論印度介入調停的可行性。標題的broker有「代理」的意思，當動詞時可接a deal/settlement/treaty。Power broker一般用來描述政客，指其藏身幕後發揮影響力。

Mood是一時間的心情，in a mood是心情不好，in the mood for (sth)或in the mood to do則是有做…的興致。Moody是喜怒無常的，通常是鬱鬱不樂。1964年在英國伯明罕成軍的搖滾樂團The Moody Blues團名中文被譯為「憂鬱藍調」。

既然要當「公親」，則不宜偏向「事主」任何一方，紐時用tightrope act形容印度介入的風險。動詞片語walk a tightrope只要想像馬戲團團員高空走鋼索的畫面，就知道一個小錯誤，可能就會引發嚴重的後果，可見處境之艱險。