紐時賞析／烏克蘭奪回大片失土 指揮官卻面臨新難題

After Big Gains, Ukrainians Face Critical Choices

烏克蘭突奪回大片失土 指揮官的新難題

After Ukraine’s stunning offensive in its northeast drove Russian forces into a chaotic retreat and reshaped the battlefield by hundreds of miles, Ukrainian leaders were weighing critical gambles that could determine the near-term course of the war.

在烏克蘭於東北部展開驚人攻擊，讓俄國軍隊混亂撤退數百哩並重新開闢戰場後，烏克蘭領袖正慎重考慮可能決定近期戰爭走向的重大賭注。

Stretching the Ukrainian forces too far could leave the troops vulnerable to attack. Moving too slow, or in the wrong place, could leave an opportunity squandered. And waiting too long could allow the front lines to freeze as winter sets in.

讓烏軍前進太遠，可能讓部隊難以抵禦攻擊。移動太慢或方向錯誤，可能錯失良機。還有待命太久，可能在冬季將臨之際讓前線受凍。

By expelling Russian troops from a large slice of strategic territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are now positioned to make a move on the Donbas, the industrialized eastern territory that President Vladimir Putin of Russia has made central to his war aims. Just before flooding troops across the border in February, Putin declared the Donbas independent from Ukraine, and he held up the region’s sovereignty as a key justification for the invasion.

在東北部哈爾科夫地區的一大片戰略領土上驅逐俄國部隊後，烏軍現在準備要在東部工業地區的頓巴斯採取行動，此處是俄國總統普亭戰爭目標的中心。就在大批俄國部隊今年2月跨越邊境之前，普亭宣稱頓巴斯從烏克蘭獨立，而且他將這個地區的主權作為正當化侵略行動的一項關鍵。

Russia now has control of nearly 90% of the Donbas, where its military shifted much of its focus after a staggering defeat around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in the spring. If Ukraine were to retake even a part of the region, it would be an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin.

俄國目前控制近九成頓巴斯地區，今年春季在烏克蘭首都基輔附近遭遇停滯的挫敗後，俄軍轉移大部分的焦點到此處。如果烏克蘭未來奪回這個地區，即使是一部分，也將是對克里姆林宮的一記難堪重擊。

Western analysts, including at the Pentagon, said that the Ukrainians were overall making gains as quickly as Russian forces were falling back.

包括五角大廈在內的西方分析家說，整體而言，烏克蘭有所斬獲的速度和俄軍節節敗退的速度一樣快。

But Ukraine faces potentially serious pitfalls if it pushes any farther.

但若烏克蘭向前推進，就會面臨潛在的巨大陷阱。

Any future advances would mean that Ukrainian forces would further extend their supply lines, straining convoys of fuel, ammunition and reinforcements as they have to move farther away from their established logistics hubs.

未來任何的推進，意味著烏軍需要進一步延伸他們的補給線，讓運送燃料、彈藥和援軍的車隊更吃力，他們必須從已經建立的後勤據點推進更多。

That could leave Ukrainian units vulnerable, said John Blaxland, a professor of security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University in Canberra. Although he added that a Russian counterattack was “not necessarily going to happen,” in part because the morale of Moscow’s troops appears to be foundering.

坎培拉的澳洲國立大學安全與情報研究教授布雷斯藍說，那可能讓烏克蘭部隊容易遭遇攻擊。他補充說，雖然俄國的反擊「不一定會發生」，部分是因為莫斯科的部隊士氣明顯受挫。

Russian officials face their own hard questions, especially with a growing backlash to their “special military operation” from pro-war voices at home.

俄國官員也面臨自家的艱難問題，特別是在家鄉支持戰爭的言論中，對於「特殊軍事行動」的反彈聲浪逐漸增加。

The current Ukrainian offensive “was a rapid breakthrough designed to take advantage of favorable positions and thinly manned Russian defenses,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.

美國維吉尼亞州阿靈頓的研究機構「海軍分析中心」俄國研究主任考夫曼說，現階段烏克蘭的攻擊「目的是利用有利位置和俄國防衛兵力薄弱，取得快速突破」。

文／Thomas Gibbons-Neff　譯／莊蕙嘉

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【張佑生】

戰場情勢瞬息萬變，部隊進退之間頗費思量。導言的weigh就是在做決定前方方面面都認真考慮過，例：weigh the risk（衡量所冒風險），weigh one's words（斟酌用字遣詞）。

下一段的squander和spend相比，尤指浪費揮霍，squander something on something的用法和spend類似，介詞都用on：His son had squandered the family fortune on gambling and women.是典型的敗家子。

段末的動詞片語set in意思是指（不愉快的事、季節等）來臨，很可能持續好一陣子。英國王妃黛安娜1997年香消玉殞時，與她交情匪淺的歌手Elton John將原本獻給瑪麗蓮夢露的金曲Candle in the Wind歌詞略作更動，但保留When the rain set in，意思未必是真的開始下雨，或者可解為在陷入困境之後，無論是夢露的Never knowing who to cling to還是黛妃的Never fading with the sunset，在歌者眼中都像是「風中之燭」那樣過了一生。