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紐時賞析/伊斯蘭國 靠非洲民兵再起

與伊斯蘭國掛鉤的莫三比克民兵血洗帕爾瑪市,大批居民驚恐出逃,無家可歸。(路透)
與伊斯蘭國掛鉤的莫三比克民兵血洗帕爾瑪市,大批居民驚恐出逃,無家可歸。(路透)

In Bid to Boost Its Profile, Islamic State Turns to Africa’s Militants

伊斯蘭國非洲民兵再起

The Islamic State group’s self-declared caliphate has fallen, its fighters have dispersed and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has been killed.

激進組織伊斯蘭國宣稱控制的哈里發國已然瓦解,旗下戰士離散,領袖巴格達迪也被幹掉了。

But two years after it suffered stinging defeats in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist group has found a new lifeline in Africa, where analysts say it has forged alliances with local militant groups in symbiotic relationships that have pumped up their profiles, fundraising and recruitment.

不過,伊斯蘭國這個恐怖組織於敘利亞和伊拉克受到重挫兩年後,在非洲發現了新的生機,分析家說,伊斯蘭國與當地民兵組織建立同盟共生關係,對雙方提高曝光度、募款和招募新血都大大加分。

Many of those homegrown insurgencies are only loosely connected to the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS. Still, over the past year, as violence from Islamic extremists on the African continent reached a record high, ISIS has trumpeted these battlefield wins to project an image of strength and inspire its supporters worldwide.

這些非洲本土叛亂團體許多跟伊斯蘭國(又稱ISIS)只有鬆散的關係。不過,一年來隨著非洲大陸伊斯蘭極端分子暴行達到新高,伊斯蘭國大肆吹噓這些戰場勝利,用以營造自己夠力的形象,並且鼓舞全球各地的支持者。

Most recently, ISIS claimed credit for a dayslong rampage in war-afflicted northern Mozambique, where militants with distant ties to ISIS ambushed a key port town. The attack left dozens of people dead, and set off talk on ISIS’s online forums of the establishment of a new caliphate there.

最近,ISIS自稱在莫三比克陷於內戰的北部犯下歷時數天的暴行,與伊斯蘭國關係極淺的民兵伏擊一個關鍵港市。攻擊造成數十人死亡,並在ISIS的網路論壇上引發在當地建立新哈里發國的討論。

“As an organization more broadly, ISIS is hurting,” said Colin Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a New York-based security consulting firm. “To improve morale among its supporters, its leadership is seeking to elevate regional branches showing the most promise in launching attacks and maintaining a robust operational tempo.”

紐約安全情報諮詢公司蘇凡集團反恐事務分析家克拉克說:「作為一個活動範圍更廣的組織,ISIS傷得不輕。為提高支持者的士氣,它的領導階層會去高舉那些最有潛力發動攻擊並能經常發動攻擊的區域分支。」

The siege on Palma, the town in Mozambique, was the most brazen attack yet by the local insurgency and is part of an alarming rise of brutal clashes involving militant Islamic extremists across the continent.

包圍莫三比克帕爾瑪市,是這個地方叛亂團體迄今最張狂的攻擊行動,也是非洲全境伊斯蘭激進民兵捲入的殘暴衝突驟增之勢的例證。

For over a decade, U.S. military and counterterrorism officials have warned that Africa was poised to become the next frontier for international terrorist organizations like al-Qaida and more recently the Islamic State group.

十多年來,美國軍方和反恐官員一直警告,非洲即將變成蓋達和年代更近的ISIS等國際恐怖組織的下一個戰線。

More recently, U.S. officials have warned that even in its weakened condition, ISIS remains a cohesive organization in its former strongholds in Iraq and Syria, with perhaps 10,000 fighters who have gone underground.

最近美國官方示警說,ISIS雖已被削弱,在伊拉克和敘利亞的舊地盤仍是深具凝聚力的組織,可能有1萬名隱姓埋名的戰士。

ISIS has forged ties with many of these local insurgencies in what analysts have described as a marriage of convenience: For the militants, the Islamic State brand brings legitimacy and recognition from local governments. ISIS, in turn, has been able to broadcast the local militants’ attacks as proof that their global jihad is alive and well.

ISIS結交許多非洲民兵這類地方叛亂團體,分析家稱之為各取所需的利益結合:對民兵而言,可藉由ISIS的招牌取得正當性與當地政府的承認;ISIS則可透過宣揚當地民兵團體的攻擊,證明自己的全球聖戰搞得有聲有色。

文/Christina Goldbaum and Eric Schmitt 譯/李京倫、核稿/樂慧生


伊斯蘭國 非洲 恐怖組織 紐約時報

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