紐時賞析／歐洲撒錢救企業 該倒不倒更慘？

Europe’s Bankruptcies Are Plummeting. That May Be a Problem.

歐洲撒錢救企業 該倒不倒更慘？

France and other European countries are spending enormous sums to keep businesses afloat during the worst recession since World War II. But some worry they’ve gone too far; bankruptcies are plunging to levels not seen in decades.

法國和一些其他歐洲國家正投注巨資，讓企業在二戰以來最大經濟衰退期間不致破產。但有些人擔心這些國家做得太過頭，致使破產公司數量大跌至數十年來最低水平。

While the aid has prevented a surge in unemployment, the largesse risks turning swathes of the economy into a kind of twilight zone where firms are swamped with debt they cannot pay off but receiving just enough state aid to stay alive — so-called zombie companies. Unable to invest or innovate, these firms could contribute to what the World Bank recently described as a potential “lost decade” of stagnant economic growth caused by the pandemic.

這些金援確已阻止失業率暴升，如此大肆撒錢卻也冒有風險，可能使經濟中相當部分變成不死不活的衰萎區，企業受困於無力償還的債務，所獲政府援助卻只夠勉強維持生計，成了所謂的殭屍公司。世界銀行日前以「失落的十年」形容疫情可能帶來的經濟成長停滯期，這些殭屍公司無力投資或創新，可能成為導致這種現象的部分原因。

“We need to get off of all of these subsidies at some point — otherwise, we’ll have a zombie economy,” said Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former prime minister of Sweden.

「我們需要適時去除所有補助，否則將迎來殭屍經濟。」智庫「歐洲外交關係協會」共同主席、瑞典前總理畢爾德說。

Bankruptcies fell 40% last year in France and Britain, and were down 25% on average in the European Union. Without government intervention, including billions in state-backed loans and subsidized payrolls, European business failures would have almost doubled last year, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private American organization.

法國和英國的破產企業數目去年下滑40%，歐盟則平均減少25%。根據美國民間組織「全國經濟研究所」的研究，若無政府干預，包括數十億的政府背書貸款和薪資補助，歐洲去年倒閉的企業幾乎會多出一倍。

By contrast, Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in the United States rose in the third quarter to the highest level since the 2010 financial crisis, a trend that is expected to continue in 2021, according to an index compiled by the U.S. law firm Polsinelli.

相對之下，美國去年第三季依破產法第11章聲請破產保護者，卻增至2010年金融危機以來的新高，根據美國波西內利律師事務所彙整的指數，這個趨勢2021年料將持續。

Those statistics are shaping a debate over whether Europe’s strategy of protecting businesses and workers “at all costs” will cement a recovery, or leave economies less competitive and more dependent on government aid when the pandemic recedes.

這些數字正形塑以下論辯：歐洲「不計代價」保護企業和勞工的策略在疫情消退之後，究竟會鞏固經濟復甦，還是讓經濟更缺乏競爭力，且更依賴政府援助。

Analysts say the government programs are already seeding the economy with thousands of inefficient businesses with low productivity, high debt and a high prospect of default once low interest rates normalize.

分析師說，政府的方案已為經濟播下數以千計的無效率企業，這些企業債台高築，且一旦低利率回升至正常水平很可能違約倒債。

An estimated 10% of companies in France were saved from bankruptcy because of government funds, according to Rexecode, a French economic think tank.

法國經濟智庫「法國經濟研究觀察中心」估計，約有10%法國公司因政府資助始未破產。

Letting unviable businesses go under, while painful, will be essential for allowing competitive sectors to thrive, said Jeffrey Franks, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s mission for France.

國際貨幣基金駐法國辦事處主任法蘭克斯說，讓無法存活的企業破產，雖然痛苦，卻是讓有競爭力的區塊得以成長的必要措施。

A wave of bankruptcies “is not something that’s necessarily so bad,” he said. “It’s part of the normal creative destruction process of regenerating economies.”

一波破產潮「未必是太壞的事」，他說。「這是讓經濟再生時，正常的創造性破壞過程的一部分。」

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【莊蕙嘉】

新冠肺炎疫情重創全球經濟，各國紛紛推出紓困方案拯救企業免於倒閉，本文討論這種做法是愛之抑或是害之。因為政府出手，歐洲各國破產企業數量大減，標題用的是plummet，文章第一段則有plunge，在本文屬同義字，皆指「decrease quickly by a large amount」。若細探字義與用法，plummet較指價格、股價等數字大跌，plunge則用於從高處往下跌落的動作。

和上述兩字相反的則是surge，可當動詞及名詞，指短時間內突然大幅上升。第二段的形容詞stagnant則指不升也不降的停滯狀態，同段的swamp原意為沼澤或陷入沼澤，具像化形容企業原地掙扎的模樣。

Chapter 11是財經新聞常見字，指美國破產法第11章，明定企業聲請破產保護的程序。當我們說Company A is going to Chapter 11，就是指A公司破產了，會比說broke或bankrupt生動得多。

文／Liz Alderman 譯／莊蕙嘉、核稿／樂慧生