紐時賞析／川普會不會催生出 重原則的新保守黨？

Will Trump Force Principled Conservatives to Start Their Own Party?

川普會不會催生出重原則的新保守黨？

隨著川普的總統任期在叫鬧中步入尾聲，足以在地方、州及國家層級形塑美國政治的首要問題之一是：川普卸任後是否還能保持對共和黨的鐵腕控制？

As the Trump presidency heads into the sunset, kicking and screaming, one of the most important questions that will shape American politics at the local, state and national levels is this: Can Donald Trump maintain his iron grip over the Republican Party when he is out of office?

我們確知的是：他非常想，也正為此積聚大量現金。以下是我的預測：若川普繼續消解拜登擔任總統的合法性，並要求同志力挺他的極端行為，共和黨可能徹底分裂，分裂成有原則派跟無原則派。川普可能也從而幫了美國最大的忙：催生出一個有原則的新保守黨。

This is what we know for sure: He damn well intends to try and is amassing a pile of cash to do so. And here is what I predict: If Trump keeps delegitimizing Joe Biden’s presidency and demanding loyalty for his extreme behavior, the GOP could fully fracture — splitting between principled Republicans and unprincipled Republicans. Trump then might have done America the greatest favor possible: stimulating the birth of a new principled conservative party.

這想法或屬一廂情願，卻不全然是異想天開。若川普始終拒絕承認拜登勝選，並持續斥責那些承認且跟新政府「勾結」的共和黨人，裂縫就要出現了。

Wishful thinking? Maybe. But here’s why it’s not entirely fanciful: If Trump refuses to ever acknowledge Biden’s victory and keeps roasting those Republicans who do — and who “collaborate” with the new administration — something is going to crack.

有原則的共和黨人，像是將國家置於政黨之上、拒絕屈從川普要求的羅姆尼、穆考斯基、法官、選務官員與州議員，將面臨愈來愈大的的壓力，要求他們另行創立自己的保守政黨。

There will be increasing pressure on the principled Republicans — people like Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and the judges, election officials and state legislators who put country before party and refused to buckle under Trump’s demands — to break away and start their own conservative party.

若此事發生，那些無原則的川普派共和黨人可能會更難當選，像是加入德州總檢察長，無恥地要求最高法院推翻拜登勝選事實的126名眾議員。

If that happens, the unprincipled Trump Republicans — like the 126 House members who joined with the Texas attorney general in a shameful Supreme Court case to nullify Biden’s victory — could have a harder time winning office.

更重要的是，即使只有少數有原則的保守派人士集結，在國會創建某種形式的第三黨，他們也可成為「造王者」。由於參院中兩大黨席次差距極微，雙方的溫和派都舉足輕重。

More important, even if just a few principled conservatives came together and created a kind of third party in Congress, they could be kingmakers. With the Senate so finely balanced, moderates on each side have significant leverage.

試想，在沒有川普從旁作梗的情況下，拜登領導的中間偏左民主黨員跟有原則的中間偏右保守派人士擕手，共同解決基礎設施、移民、歐記健保及氣候等方面的問題。

Imagine Biden’s center-left Democrats and principled center-right conservatives working together on fixes for infrastructure, immigration, Obamacare or climate — without Trump around to disrupt any progress.

這或許是一廂情願的想法，但我從採訪中東新聞學到的一件事是，極端分子只有一點靠得住，就是不知何時該停止。因此，到頭來幾乎總是走到萬劫不復，還拖了很多人下水。

Wishful thinking? Maybe. But one thing I learned covering the Middle East is that there is only one reliable thing about extremists — they don’t know when to stop. So, in the end, they almost always go over the cliff, taking a lot of people with them.

你可以說我瘋了，但直覺告訴我，當川普只是海湖莊園的君主，只會口吐毒液時，一些共和黨人會說「夠了」。一個有原則的新保守政黨可能就此誕生。

Call me mad, but my gut tells me that when Trump is just the monarch of Mar-a-Lago — just spewing venom — some Republicans will say “enough.” Somewhere in there a new party of principled conservatives might just get born.

文／Thomas L. Friedman 譯／陳韋廷 核稿／樂慧生

說文解字看新聞

【陳韋廷】

即將卸任的川普迄今不斷想推翻選舉結果，持續指控舞弊欲讓大選失去合法性，文中單字delegitimize即指這種行為，此字另一常見意思為「使失去法律效力」，意思同於文中另一單字nullify。

共和黨隨川普起舞並遭到綁架，該黨分裂恐進一步擴大，將以principled與否一分為二，fracture即表「分裂、斷裂」之意，此字在文中當動詞用，跟同段單字split同義，另外，principled在文中是「有道德是非原則的」之意。

此外，首段俚語head into the sunset在文中意譯為「步入尾聲」，從字面意義「走入日落」引申而來，同段的maintain iron grip over sth則指的是「對某事物保持鐵腕控制」，其中介系詞over可用on代替。wishful thinking文中譯成「一廂情願的想法」，另一常見譯法為「異想天開」，但帶有貶意。